Stellantis CEO Gets Surprisingly Candid about ElectrificationThe issue is realistically, can any manufacture, right now, make NOTHING but HEV products without selling any purely ICE products and not have any impact of production BEV products that are in their lineup? Or having to spend development $$ on new HEV powertrains that would need to be developed to meet this goal?
Realistically, using Ford as an example-they've already plotted out how they are intending on doing this-new BEV products will be replacing/supplementing current ICE programs-First the Explorer then the Escape/Bronco Sport. The Ranger and Bronco won't be BEVs till 2030 or so. The Maverick is staying ICE/Hybrid till 2032 I think. Ford has said zero about the Bronco or Ranger getting a HEV powertrain anytime soon, and with the BEV version coming in 6-7 years, does it actually make any sense to spend money on putting a 2.3L Powerboost in that won't really improve MPG or CO2 emissions, just for a 5-7 year time frame?
As for the affordability issues-that will be improved as battery/manufacturing prices shrink...but yet people have no problem spending an average of $50K on a car today or spending an extra $10K on a Maverick Hybrid that costs $20K.
Spending money on new ICE or HEVs is stupid at this moment-say a new program starts this year for an I6-will Ford actually be able to make money off it by 2030, since all the programs outside of the ICE F-150 will offer an BEV by then? Ford would be better just sticking with what it has now and just ride it out till it dies.
The CAFE requirements are getting more stringent-its supposed to go up to 26% from today come 2026...I'm sure that the 2029 regulations will be even more stringent and require even more BEVs to be able to make it. So that further crimps whatever savings HEVs can make.
Once again it boils down to nuances-lots of things can change in the next 12 years. I don't think the affordability issue will be as big of a deal as it is today. Just as an example, we will have 20 times the amount of battery production in the USA in 2030 then we had in 2021.
https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/articles/fotw-1271-january-2-2023-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-capacity#:~:text=A wave of new planned,production between 2025 and 2030.
There will be enough battery production in the USA alone in 2030 to support producing 10-13 million autos a year. I think the average sales are anywhere between 9-17 million a year depending on the economy etc.Sat, 04 Mar 2023 23:24:33 +0000
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